Mary's Be a GoodDog Blog: Corona Virus Humor...economic collapse versus the flu

Thursday, April 2, 2020

Corona Virus Humor...economic collapse versus the flu

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“A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza,” Dr. Ioannidis points out. “If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.”

…] Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford claims more people will die from a potential economic collapse than from COVID-19, and he has the statistics to prove it. You don’t want to miss this.

What if the hysteria by government officials over this pandemic is based on faulty formulas? Well, if you are an expert trying to warn Americans of this possible outcome, you found yourself censored ...

Dr. John Ioannidis wrote an extensive piece titled: “A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data.”

“The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco,” the Stanford expert writes. “At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected.”

“The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed,” he adds.

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This is why Dr. John Ioannidis concludes that more people will die from an economic collapse than from COVID-19.

He is not alone. Aaron Ginn and Justin Hart, both statisticians, join Ioannidis in pointing out, in the beginning, the World Health Organization (WHO) based its numbers on faulty formulas. By now, most of you have heard that COVID-19 is more deadly than the yearly flu. However, that stat by WHO was based on a different formula.

The yearly flu stats are based on the total world’s population (a very big number). So, when we translate that into a percentage of the number of people who will die from the flu, the percentage is around 0.1 percent.

WHO did not use the total world’s population. Instead, they used a percentage of those infected who die, and that’s how they came up with the 3.4 mortality rate. The true number of those dying from COVID-19 is the same as the yearly flu, 0.1 percent or less.

“This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future,” Dr. Ioannidis said.

“You have also heard that this virus is much more contagious. This is also a fallacy.”

Dr. Paul Auwaerter, the Clinical Director for the Division of Infectious Diseases at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine says transmission of COVID-19 is also similar to the seasonal flu.

“If you have a COVID-19 patient in your household, your risk of developing the infection is about 10%….If you were casually exposed to the virus in the workplace (e.g., you were not locked up in conference room for six hours with someone who was infected [like a hospital], your chance of infection is about 0.5%,” Dr. Auwaerter said.

Those numbers reflect what we see in the seasonal flu and is the point the good doctor from John Hopkins is making. All these experts also say one of the best instances we can use to see real numbers of this pandemic happens to be what went down on the cruise ship the Diamond Princess.

“The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher,” Dr. Ioannidis said.

“Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%),” Ioannidis concludes.

This still comes nowhere near to the 3.4 percent projection from WHO that drove our government officials to shut down the U.S. economy.

“A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza,” Dr. Ioannidis points out. “If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.”

All of these experts’ work is being censored. Google warns you that “the following information may be unreliable” before you can click to proceed to view their work. President Donald Trump has gotten wind of these expert opinions:

WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO... Donald J. Trump March 22, 2020

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Socialized medicine to blame for the high rate of COVID-19 deaths in certain countries?

“Higher fatality rates in China, Iran and Italy are more likely associated with a sudden shock to the healthcare system unable to address demands and doesn’t accurately reflect viral fatality rates,” Aaron Ginn writes, an expert statistician.
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Oh, what a travesty it would be if this pandemic proves that Universal Healthcare systems are utterly unable to provide their citizens with adequate care. In fact, you are more likely to die from a pandemic if you live in countries that have one in place.

Now, that would be the icing on the cake and drive more Americans to vote straight GOP come November. So, let’s spread the truth. It is not proven that COVID-19 is more deadly than the seasonal flu, and we should not keep our economy in lockdown as that would certainly lead to America’s ruin.

First published on Nich’s Café End Times